A TikTok ban seems even more likely after a federal appeals court unanimously decided to uphold the ruling. “The Government acted solely to protect that freedom from a foreign adversary nation and to limit that adversary’s ability to gather data on people in the United States,” wrote Senior Judge Douglas Ginsburg in the majority opinion.

The three-judge panel sided with the Justice Department in a law that would ban TikTok from distribution on app stores. The ban, approved by Congress and President Biden earlier this year, made provisions for the Chinese company that owns TikTok, called Bytedance, until January 19 of next year to sell the app or shut it down entirely in the United States.

The TikTok ban and everyday users

For everyday users, the ban could have a big impact simply because many of us use the app in our daily routine. It’s become as common as Facebook and Instagram. We use TikTok for entertainment, researching places to eat, and learning about trends.

I’ll use myself as an example, I’m a total coffee snob and love finding eclectic caffeine dispensaries in my area. There’s no better way to find them than TikTok. For starters, the algorithm is just better than other apps. I’ve seen short clips of trendy coffee shops many times in my feed, then headed directly to that location based on the mini review. Once the algorithm finds out what you like (based on how long you watch or your clicks), it just keeps getting better.

User habits on TikTok are well documented. A recent Pew Research study found that most of us are not actually creating content but we do scroll to read up on the news. We also like the entertainment content and how-to videos. Adults spend about 52 minutes per day on the app, which is higher than most social media apps. For example, we spend only about 33 minutes per day on Facebook.

One reason we like TikTok so much? For many of us, the app is feeding us the content we like and then hooking us even more based on the time we spend watching clips, who we follow, what we like and what we click on, and which search terms we’re using. In short, the app knows us, and that’s why we like it.

Instagram has made a noble effort to keep up with the TikTok algorithm, but the reality is that I just don’t see the same trending content in my feed. I don’t find as many coffee shops, which is just one small example of how easy it is to get hooked on the app. That’s one reason the average time spent on Instagram each day is only about 34 minutes. We like that app, but not quite as much as TikTok. It was a recent top app in terms of app store downloads for a reason: We’re hooked.

What happens after the TikTok ban

Will TikTok survive in some form or another? Probably, especially since it is looking like the most likely scenario is that Bytedance will simply find a new owner in the United States. I also wonder if users are already starting to find alternatives, such as YouTube Shorts or the reels in Facebook. Recently, user registrations have started to decline. I can only assume that’s due to users feeling the app might be banned.

What will most likely happen if the ban does happen next month is that the app stores will not allow anyone to download it, since that would come with hefty fines. Users will switch to other apps that do not quite match the algorithm in TikTok but work roughly the same. Or, a new competitor will emerge.

This latest appeals ruling is definitely another nail in the coffin, but everything is about to change on January 20 when Donald Trump takes office for a second term. What could happen at that time is that he tries to reinstate the app. Previously, Trump had called for a ban and then reversed his decision. His new administration seems divided on keeping the ban.

My guess is that Bytedance will find a buyer in the United States before the TikTok ban goes into effect. I doubt they will trust that President Trump will make any quick moves to keep it alive once he gets into office.